http://bayesianrisk.com/Errata.pdf

An especially interesting error (with a fair few ramifications) has been discovered in Example 5.6 on pages 122-23. The error was triggered in our calculation of the 99th percentile of the particular Binomial distribution there. Basically we wanted to know the following:

what is the numberNow, because the Binomial is a discrete distribution there is no reason why there should be an integerkfor which the probability of tossing at least k heads in 100 tosses is 0.01?

*k*for which the probability of tossing at least

*k*heads in 100 tosses is exactly 0.01. In fact it turns out that:

- for
*k*=61 the probability is 0.017 - for
*k*=62 the probability is 0.0105 - for
*k*=63 the probability is 0.006

*k*=62 because that was

*easily*the closest to 0.01.

However, to make the point in the example to work it was important that the probability was LESS than 0.01. So, whereas the example used

*k*=62, what we strictly needed was

*k*=63. This meant all the subsequent calculations were wrong.

There were also some other errors in the example including a couple that had been introduced by the publishers as they were correct in our final manuscript.

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