The single most important book on Bayesian methods for decision analysts, March 19, 2014The book now has 19 customer reviews on amazon.com (15 of which are 5-star and 4 of which are 4-star) and 10 customer reviews on amazon.co.uk (7 of which are 5-star and 3 of which are 4-star).
By Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) Amazon Verified Purchase
This review is from: Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks (Hardcover)
Fenton and Neil have successfully made a "crossover" book that reaches broad audiences on a topic which is too often presented in a dry and esoteric manner. It is rich with illustrations, interesting examples, debunking of common fallacies, and a passionate philosophical position on Bayesian methods vs. the "frequentist" methods common in statistics.
This book is a comprehensive treatment of Bayesian methods but focuses on the particularly powerful models that can be made when conditional probabilities are presented in networks. The authors present a complete algebra of Bayesian networks using both formal expressions and simple diagrams so that almost any reader can be comfortable with the topic. This book does not assume that the reader has even basic training in probabilistic methods (it has a chapter on the basics of probability) but it also does not compromise on substantive content. The reader seeking basic explanations will not feel excluded and the reader seeking more advanced treatments will be satisfied as well.
This is exactly the sort of rigorous thinking that needs to displace the "softer" methods more common in risk assessment and decision analysis. It is presented as an entirely practical solution for managers, not an abstract, academic exercise. The "best practices" committees for PMBOK, ISO, Cobit and managers everywhere would be well advised to read this book before inventing yet another risk assessment or decision analysis method based on fluffy scores.
Doug Hubbard Author of How to Measure Anything (2007, 2010, 2014), The Failure of Risk Management (2009) and Pulse (2011)
Last week the book was number 1 top seller on amazon in the 'risk management' category.